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Zvi Bar’el at his best:
However pure political and diplomatic logic makes it difficult to see Damascus behind the assassination. The day Gemayel was killed, Syria chalked up one of its most significant diplomatic achievements since its defeat in Lebanon in April 2005: the renewal of full diplomatic relations with Iraq.
Syria is also on the way to achieving a semi-official stamp of approval from Washington as able to calm things down in Iraq. Syria could have been on the verge of an important political success in Lebanon – the possible fall of Fuad Siniora’s government, which would mean Syria could increase the power of its supporters in the government by means of the Hezbollah ultimatum. If that came about, the international tribunal on the murder of Rafik Hariri would be delayed, or at least be of a sort convenient for the Syrians.
And if you still want to go with the Syrian hypothesis, I think this is more interesting (involving several actors):
One of the Syrian intelligence organizations might have been behind the act, as revenge on those it deems responsible for the bashing it will take at an international tribunal.
If that is true, it puts Syrian president Bashar Assad in an embarrasing position, with elements of his regime working behind his back.
Update: Other opinion pieces (like one in Maariv and one in Yediot Ahronot, but i don’t have because I get a an email press review directly translated from Hebrew) are saying that the big losers are Hizbullah (the Maariv one) and Syria (the Yediot Ahronot one). I mean what’s going on in the world? Is it only the Israelis that are getting some sense out of this?
Update 2: One Joseph Samaha a day keeps the doctor away.