2-day sum-up

The more the Israeli government is in a state of disarray, the more dangerous the war will become for the Lebanese. There were talks yesterday for extending war targets to include specific governmental assets in order to create indirect pressure on Hezbollah. The idea is to create a hostage type of situation by targeting other infrastructure that has no strategic relation to Hezbollah’s guerrilla waging such as electricity plants, water plants, etc. The hostage would be the Lebanese government and the one who will have to make a choice is Hezbollah.

This is quite dirty actually, and as long as it is sanctified by the Americans, the Israelis are probably put all they can in order to prove to the Americans that they weren’t wrong in trusting them with dislodging Hezbollah.

Following the nervous breakdown that Lebanese PM Fouad Siniora went through while trying to convince the other sold-out Arab rulers to do something against the general butchering, a delegation was sent to the US in order to try to talk sense out of the Americans in order to include a retrieval of the Israeli forces from Lebanese territory, something that was not included in the American-French proposition for a cease-fire but endorsed by the UN security council.

Yesterday alone you had 60 people dead because of Israeli attacks.

It is in this time, while waiting for a new amended decision to come out that Israel will try everything possible to:

1- Damage as much as possible Lebanese key infrastructure, along with try to destroy more Hezbollah arsenal
2- Gain time with the Americans saying: “don’t worry we told we can do the job so let us finish it”

Now for some Israeli propaganda: I was just watching Israeli PM Olmert on TV during his press conference. I caught a very important point he said: “We will not accept anything before Khezballah stops firing their rockets. What we ask for is that Khezballah stops firing its rockets”.

Wait a minute… what? Is the Israeli government amnesiac? Let me refresh the memory of Olmert. Israeli invaded Lebanon by destroying infrastructure and bombing civilian locations, then, and only then, did Khezballah started shooting rockets in Israel. So Khezballah will naturally stop firing rockets once Israel has stopped shooting at civilians and infrastructure. I think Hezbollah’s SG Nasrallah was very clear on that: stop killing and destroying, we stop firing rockets.

Actually and according to Israeli intelligence source commenting on the issue, it seems that Khezballah is increasing rocket launching in order to speed up the road for a cease-fire. They probably hope that by firing a maximum amount of rockets, the Israeli will feel compelled to call for a stop. As we can see from above, Olmert links his presence in Lebanon to the sole fact that Khezballah fires rockets. So here you have it.

Hezbollah also agreed on having Lebanese army deployed in the south if the accord reached includes a retrieval of Israeli forces from the south. This is a very important event by no means, and if I want to be optimistic (as I rarely am) this shows an unprecedented national unity reached in Lebanon. This hides many dissensions and the real challenge will still take place after all this will be over, but suffice it say that for now, the Israeli acted so stupidly and with the blessing of the most incompetent wanna-be empire in the world (namely the Americans), that they succeeded in uniting the Lebanese on crucial existential issues.

Does this mean that the US will not have anymore clients in the Lebanon? Of course not but the rules of the game have completely changed. No more puppet government at the mercy of French and American ambassadors, I can tell you that (or let’s say I hope). We could only guess that new elections in Lebanon will bring Michel Aoun and a disarmed Khezballah to power, once a fortified army has been put in place. But who will be the Sunni counterpart in power in this case? Maybe Siniora, he’s up for it.

All this is possible only if the Israelis and the Americans calm the f**k down.


3 Replies to “2-day sum-up”

  1. Was just watching Pierre Gemayel spew his tired old shite at Mai Chidiac’s behest on (A)LBC Australia. Seems somebody pressed Pierre et al’s pause button very early on in this offensive. So, no taking into account any developments or fresh info coming in about the pre-planning of this invasion, even though Jack Sarraf was on the very same program “touching on” these things. Pause button & selective hearing, it seems. As for mini-Hariri…seems he’s still clocking up the frequent flyer miles…

    We’ve been on the phone to various relatives in Lebanon and they’re optimistic ino bten7al ariban – yawm, yawmen. There’s been familial accusation and counter-accusation of misinformation…They accuse us of giving too much weight to the “grave exaggerations” of Al-Jazeera and the clear agenda of (A)LBC (with the occasionally profound cartoon & a great deal of Future-bation on Future TV). We hope they’re right.

  2. in the great “war on terror” (as laid out in tuesday’s wsj), one must read between the lines in order to find that “unprecedented national unity reached in lebanon” that we all hope for. today’s wsj editorial refuses to name siniora, rather the journal insinuates the continuation of syrian and khezbollian (love that twist!) dominance:

    “Harder to dismiss is criticism from the Lebanese government. But that mostly shows the extent to which Hezbollah — with 14 parliamentary seats and violent tactics — is a cancer on Lebanon and that country’s nascent democratic process. “A state within a state” is an apt description for the group, whose prominence within Lebanon is akin to what Ireland would have been like if the IRA/Sinn Fein had been armed and powerful enough to launch rockets on English towns from Irish soil. Simply put, any Lebanese politician who resists Hezbollah now risks assassination.”

    (the final sentence follows up on the journal’s earlier sympathetic coverage of walid jumblatt as a local warlord who offers safe harbor to khezbollah in order to cover his arse in the future.)

    so, with the states focused on avenging 1983, the discourse of the war on terror has completely erased, emasculated, and deflated the effectiveness of any lebanese agent who is not syrian or khezbollian.

    perhaps anonymity leaves room to negotiate clientelism in the new lebanon, or more likely, it merely maintains lebanon’s proxy role in the great war on terror, for which she and all of her lovelies continue to suffer, shouting in an anechoic chamber.

    wsj editorial: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB115500040075629428.html?mod=opinion_main_review_and_outlooks

  3. so keep firing rockets at civilian targets?
    ok if they keep hitting army reservists like last time. Hitting civilians is counter productive. anyway, i think Hezb are at a point where they can affort to stop: they’ve proved to Apartheid state israel and the rest of the world that hezb has survived despite all savage over reaction. Altough at the expense of lebanon’s destruction.

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